2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election

The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, elections to the state's U.S. House seats, and various other elections. Incumbent Republican governor Scott Walker sought re-election to a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well as Libertarian Phil Anderson and independent Maggie Turnbull. Evers, along with his running mate Mandela Barnes, managed to defeat Walker and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in a closely fought and widely watched race, ending the state's Republican trifecta.

The result was considered "too close to call" on election night, with Walker and Evers being separated by a mere few hundred votes for much of the night as counties reported their results. Shortly after midnight on November 7, Milwaukee County reported around 46,000 uncounted absentee ballots. From those ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181, giving Evers a narrow lead. The race was called for him shortly after.

Wisconsin was the only state in the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle to elect a Democratic governor while voting more Republican than the national average. With a margin of 1.1%, this election was also the second-closest race of the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Florida. Walker was one of two Republican incumbent governors to be defeated for re-election in 2018, the other being Bruce Rauner in neighboring Illinois, who had lost decisively to J. B. Pritzker.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Endorsements

Scott Walker

Federal officials

Statewide officials

Organizations

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary

Governor

Nominee

  • Tony Evers, Wisconsin state superintendent of public instruction

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Mike Crute, liberal talk radio broadcaster (endorsed McCabe)
  • Michele Doolan, businesswoman (endorsed Flynn)
  • Andy Gronik, businessman (remained on ballot; endorsed Roys)
  • Bob Harlow, candidate for CA-18 in 2016 (endorsed Flynn)
  • Kurt Kober, businessman (ran for lieutenant governor)
  • Jeff Rumbaugh, disability rights activist (endorsed McCabe)
  • Dana Wachs, state representative (remained on ballot; endorsed Evers)

Declined

Endorsements

Tony Evers

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

  • Steve Kagen, Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (former)
  • Dave Obey, Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (former)

State officials

State legislators

  • Spencer Black, former state representative
  • Fred Clark, former state representative
  • John Lehman, former state senator
  • Mark Miller, state senator
  • Sondy Pope, state representative
  • Calvin Potter, former state senator
  • Bob Turner, former state representative
  • Dana Wachs, state representative
  • Mandy Wright, former state representative

Municipal elected officials

Labor unions

Matt Flynn

State elected officials

County elected officials

Individuals

Mike McCabe

Individuals

  • Tim Canova, candidate for Florida's 23rd congressional district (Independent)
Mahlon Mitchell

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Kelda Roys

U.S. senators

National organizations

State legislators

Individuals

Dana Wachs (withdrew)

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Polling

An asterisk (*) denotes that a candidate withdrew before the primary but remains on the ballot.

Results

Results by county:
  Evers—50–60%
  Evers—40–50%
  Evers—30–40%
  Mitchell—30–40%
  Vinehout—30–40%
  Vinehout—40–50%
  Vinehout—50–60%

Lieutenant governor

Mandela Barnes, a former state representative from Milwaukee, defeated opponent Kurt Kober by a 2 to 1 margin for the nomination, becoming the first African American to be nominated by a major party for a Wisconsin gubernatorial ticket.

Candidate

Nominee
  • Mandela Barnes, former state representative, and candidate for state senate in 2016
Eliminated in primary
  • Kurt J. Kober, businessman

Results

Results by county:
  Barnes—70–80%
  Barnes—60–70%
  Barnes—50–60%
  Kober—60–70%

Libertarian primary

Governor

Nominee

Endorsements

Phil Anderson

State officials

  • William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts (1991–1997)

Results

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

  • Patrick Baird, U.S. Navy veteran

Results

Green primary

Governor

Nominee

  • Michael White

Withdrew

  • Nick De Leon, pastor (endorsed Matt Flynn)

Results

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

  • Tiffany Anderson

Results

Independent candidates

Governor

Lieutenant governor

  • Wil Losch, Turnbull's running mate

General election

Despite the fact that Scott Walker had won three prior races for governor in 2010, 2012, and 2014 by fairly comfortable margins, his bid for a third term was complicated by rising unpopularity due to his policies concerning public education and infrastructure. Walker also faced backlash for a deal his administration made with Taiwanese company Foxconn in 2017 to create jobs in the state in exchange for around $4.5 billion in taxpayer subsidies. In 2018, the deal resulted in around $90 million of funding for roads being diverted to a stretch of I-94 that was set to be near a future Foxconn plant from the rest of state. The poor condition of many roads around the state as well as the lack of work being done to redo them prompted a campaign where potholes were being labeled as “Scott”-holes.

Walker's approval ratings were hobbled further by the unpopularity of Republican U.S. President Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Walker himself sounded the alarm on this several times in early 2018 after Democrats won two special elections to the Wisconsin State Senate in typically Republican districts and an election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In April 2018, Walker warned that Wisconsin was "at risk of a blue wave" in November. The Walker campaign generally focused on promoting the popular parts of his record, such as a freeze on tuition at public universities and record low unemployment.

The result was expected to be close, with a record $93 million spent on the race by the two major campaigns and special interest groups from in and out of the state. In the end, Walker was ultimately defeated by Democrat Tony Evers, who garnered a slightly more than 1% margin of victory, as Democrats swept every statewide race up for election.

Predictions

Notes

Polling

Hypothetical polling

with Kelda Roys

with Matt Flynn

with Mike McCabe

with Mahlon Mitchell

with Josh Pade

with Paul Soglin

with Kathleen Vinehout

with Andy Gronik

with Dana Wachs

Results

Evers won the election by a 1.09% margin.

Results by county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Walker won five of the eight congressional districts.

Aftermath

Despite the close result, Scott Walker was unable to request a recount due to a law he had signed himself two years prior, which requires the margin of difference to be within 1%.

Lame duck legislative session

Early in December 2018, a special legislative session was called by Walker to pass a series of bills to limit the powers of Governor-elect Evers, as well as incoming Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who had defeated incumbent Brad Schimel in the concurrent Attorney General election.

Other bills being considered included restrictions on early voting and the passage of Medicaid work requirements, which Walker had previously held off on due to the election. A similar law restricting early voting that was passed several years prior had been ruled as unconstitutional.

The bills were widely denounced by Democrats and others as a "power grab." Representative Gwen Moore described the move as a "coup" that "hijacked the voters' will." Walker and other Republicans meanwhile argued that the bills were necessary ”checks on power” and that they did not actually strip any real powers from the executive. Lawsuits were filed by Evers and various labor unions almost immediately after Walker signed the bills into law.

See also

Notes

References

Official campaign websites

Uses material from the Wikipedia article 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election, released under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.