2019–20 Croatian presidential election

Presidential elections were held in Croatia in December 2019 and January 2020. The decision to call the elections was made by the Croatian Government during its session on 14 November 2019. Potential candidates were required to gather at least 10,000 signatures from Croatian citizens who have reached the age of 18 in order for their candidacy to become official and for their name to appear on the ballot. They were allocated a time frame of twelve days to accomplish this and thus had until midnight local time on 3 December 2019 to present their signatures to the State Electoral Commission. A total of twelve candidates submitted signatures by the deadline and the commission then proceeded to verify the signatures within the following 48 hours, presenting a final list of eleven approved candidates on 5 December 2019.

In the first round of the election, which was held on 22 December 2019, former prime minister Zoran Milanović finished in first place with 30% of the vote. He was followed closely by incumbent president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, who received 27% of the vote and by Miroslav Škoro with 25%. As no candidate received an absolute majority, a run-off took place on 5 January 2020 between Milanović and Grabar-Kitarović. Milanović won the second round with 53% of the vote and was elected the fifth president of Croatia since independence in 1991, while Grabar-Kitarović became the second consecutive president not to have been reelected for a second term, after Ivo Josipović (2010–2015). The number of votes received by Milanović in both the first and the second round was the lowest of any victorious presidential candidate to date, while the number of votes and vote share of Grabar-Kitarović in the first round was the lowest for any incumbent president running for re-election.

Background

The incumbent president of Croatia, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, took office on 19 February 2015 and her term is due to end on 18 February 2020. The presidential term of Zoran Milanović is due to begin on 19 February 2020 and end on 18 February 2025.

Electoral system

The president of Croatia is directly elected by secret ballot to a term of 5 years using a two-round system. The Constitution of Croatia requires that a presidential election be held no sooner than 60 days and no later than 30 days before the expiration of the incumbent president's term. An absolute majority (50% + 1 vote) of all votes cast (including invalid, blank and uncast ballots) is required to win in the first round. If no candidate acquires such a majority, a second-round is to be held in 14 days' time, with the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round taking part. The candidate who acquires the highest number of votes in the second round (a majority of valid cast votes) is declared the winner. If one of the candidates who has won a high enough number of votes to take part in the second round were to abandon his candidacy or die, the candidate with the next highest number of votes in the first round will earn the right to take part in the second round. Furthermore, Croatian presidents may serve a maximum of two 5-year terms in their lifetime (a total of 10 years if both terms are won and served out in full).

In order for a potential candidate to be legally allowed to contest the election and have their name placed on the ballot, they must gather at least 10,000 signatures from eligible voters, with every such signatory being permitted to give his signature of support to only one potential candidate. The time frame for collecting the said number of signatures is set at 12 days, and after the expiry of this period potential candidates must submit them to the State Electoral Commission for verification.

Candidates

On 5 December, the State Electoral Commission published a list of 11 candidates.

Withdrawn bids

  • Vlaho Orepić withdrew on 2 December. He had initially scheduled the submission of his signatures of endorsement to the State Electoral Commission for 3 December 2019, however after having managed to collect only 8,054 signatures by the evening of 2 December, he determined that he would be unlikely to reach the required quota of 10,000 signatures by the set deadline and he thus withdrew his candidacy. He is a member of the Croatian Parliament (2017–) and the former Minister of the Interior (2016–2017). He had announced his bid on 11 July.
  • Tomislav Panenić withdrew on 3 December. He is a current member of the Croatian Parliament (2016–) and the former Minister of Economy (2016). His bid was announced on 26 June.
  • Ante Simonić withdrew on 3 December. He is a former Deputy Prime Minister of Croatia, having served in the Second Račan cabinet. He has announced his bid on 14 July 2019.

Failed candidacies

These individuals failed to submit the required number of endorsement signatures.

  • Slobodan Midžić, a perennial potential candidate who submitted just one signature of endorsement to the State Electoral Commission on 3 December 2019. He had previously unsuccessfully attempted to become an official candidate in the 2009 and the 2014 elections.
  • Josip Juretić, an activist. His bid was announced on 7 September.
  • Ivan Rude, a lawyer from Šibenik. His bid was announced on 16 September.
  • Ava Karabatić, a TV personality, singer, and model from Zadar. Her bid was announced on 30 September. Subsequently, she endorsed Zoran Milanović.
  • David Lucijan Rožman, a student. His bid was announced on 1 October.
  • Antun Babić, a former deputy chief of mission-minister plenipotentiary in the Croatian embassy in Ireland. His bid was announced on 14 February 2019
  • Goran Jurišić, a member of HSP 1861. His bid was announced on 3 January 2019.
  • Marko Vučetić, a member of the Croatian Parliament (2016 onwards). His bid was announced on 14 November 2018.
  • Ante Pavlović, controversial charismatic Croatian self-proclaimed chiropractor and martial arts expert.

Declined to be candidates

These individuals have been the subject of presidential speculation, but have publicly denied or recanted interest in running for president.

Campaign

First round

Endorsements

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović
Mislav Kolakušić
Zoran Milanović
Katarina Peović
  • Workers' Front (RF)
  • Socialist Labour Party (SRP)
  • New Left (NL)
  • Ljiljana Nikolovska, singer
  • Ivica Prtenjača, author
  • Nadežda Čačinovič, philosopher, professor University of Zagreb
  • Aleksandar "Saša" Kabiljo, composer
  • Tomislav Jakić, journalist, former adviser to the 2nd Croatian president Stjepan Mesić
  • Drago Plečko, author, parapsychologist
  • Ines Prica, anthropologist at Institute of Ethnology and Folklore Research
  • Zoran Restović, president of the Association of the Anti-Fascist Fighters of Šibenik-Knin County
  • Sead Lipovača, guitarist and the founder of Divlje Jagode
  • Krešimir Sučević Međeral, researcher at Institute for Croatian Language and Linguistics and a TV personality (chaser at the Croatian version of the game show The Chase)
  • Alen Marin, musician, lead singer of Kojoti
  • Boris Cerovec, leader of the Jadranski Sindikat trade union
  • Boris Kuk, designer
  • Borivoj Radaković, author
  • Ankica Čakardić, Marxist-feminist philosopher, assistant professor at Zagreb University
  • Boris Postnikov, essayist and literary critic
  • Velimir Visković, literary critic and lexicographer
  • Franci Blašković, musician
  • Marina Banićević, film director
  • Davor Jurkotić, comedian and TV host
  • Mario Lipovšek Battifiaca, musician, comedian and TV host
  • Rada Borić, feminist activist, linguist, member of the Zagreb Assembly
  • Siniša Miličić, leader of the Regional Industrial Trade Union
  • Viktor Ivančić, publicist and journalist, founder of Feral Tribune
  • Vlado Bulić, writer and actor
  • Hrvoje Rupčić, musician, founder of Cubismo
  • Nemanja Cvijanović, multimedia artist
  • Slaven Tolj, multimedia artist
  • Dražen Turina Šajeta, musician
  • Slavin Balen, radio host and DJ at Radio 101
Miroslav Škoro

Debates

After official validation of candidates by the State Electoral Commission, the first debate was a confrontation between Katarina Peović (RF and SRP) and Anto Đapić (Democratic Alliance for National Renewal), the most left-wing and the most-right wing candidate respectively, which was filmed by and broadcast on N1 television on 5 December 2019.

On 17 December, the Croatian Radiotelevision held the general debate with all 11 candidates participated. It was the only debate where all first-round candidates participated.

Second round

Endorsements

Zoran Milanović
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović

Debates

On 30 December, RTL held the first general debate with two second round candidates participated. Croatian Radiotelevision held the second debate on 2 January 2020. The third and final general debate was held on Nova TV on 3 January.

Opinion polls

First round

Polls conducted after the official start of the campaign

Polls conducted before the official start of the campaign

Second round

Polls conducted after the first round

Hypothetical polling

Polls conducted after the official start of the campaign

Opinion polls

Results

The first round of the election took place on 22 December 2019, with former Social Democratic Prime Minister Zoran Milanović winning by a plurality of 29.55% of the vote, ahead of conservative incumbent President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, who received 26.65% of the vote. The conservative folk musician and former Member of Parliament Miroslav Škoro, who was running as an independent candidate, narrowly failed to reach the run-off election, managing to attract the support of 24.45% of voters. This marked the first time in Croatian history that the incumbent president did not receive the highest number of votes in the first round. Also, Grabar-Kitarović attained both the lowest number of votes (507,626) and the lowest percentage of votes of any Croatian president competing in either of the two rounds of elections. Milanović received both the lowest number of votes (562,779) and the lowest percentage of the vote of any first-place candidate in the first round of a presidential election. Škoro received the highest number of votes (465,703) for a third-placed candidate since Mate Granić (HDZ) in the 2000 elections and the highest-ever percentage of the vote for a candidate who did not advance to the run-off. Milanović received a plurality of the vote in Croatia's three largest cities; 33.02% in Zagreb, 30.79% in Split and 41.87% in Rijeka, and finished second (25.61%) in the fourth largest city, Osijek, which was won by Škoro (33.33%). Grabar-Kitarović came in second in Split and Rijeka, and third in Zagreb and Osijek.

A run-off was held between Milanović and Grabar-Kitarović on 5 January 2020. Milanović won by just over 104,000 votes, becoming the fifth President of Croatia since independence and the second to have been officially nominated by the Social Democratic Party, after Ivo Josipović (2010–2015). Furthermore, Milanović received a majority of the vote in seven counties and in the City of Zagreb, while Grabar-Kitarović defeated him among voters living in thirteen counties and among the members of the Croatian diaspora. However, Milanović defeated Grabar-Kitarović in all four major cities: Zagreb (by around 74,000 votes), Split (by around 3,000 votes), Rijeka (by around 20,000 votes) and Osijek (by around 1,000 votes).

By county

First round

Second round

Maps

First round

Second round

Voter demographics

Ipsos Puls exit polls for the first round of the election suggested the following demographic breakdown:

See also

Notes

References

Uses material from the Wikipedia article 2019–20 Croatian presidential election, released under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.