Benner's cycle
Benner's cycle describes a theorized economic phenomenon named after an Ohioan accountant, farmer and American Civil War veteran Samuel Benner (1832–1913), who wrote a book entitled Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices: What Years to Make Money on Pig-Iron, Hogs, Corn, and Provisions in the late 19th century. The book is based on U.S. government data of market cycles between 1780–1872, which he analyzed to make predictions of market peaks and troughs through 1904, and reprinted in sixteen updated editions until 1907.
The chart marks three phases of market cycles:
- A. Panic Years - "Years in which panic have occurred and will occur again."
- B. Good Times - "Years of Good Times. High prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds."
- C. "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc. and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload."
Cycles
Benner estimated that panics occur on a cycle of roughly 18 years, 20 years, and 16 years (18-20-16). After a panic, Good Times last for about 7 years. This is followed by a transition of about 11 years to Hard Times. Then, recovery to Good Times over a period of about 9 years (7-11-9).
| Hard Times | Good Times | Panics |
|---|---|---|
| 1780 | ||
| 1783 | 1783 | |
| 1789 | ||
| 1791 | ||
| 1796 | ||
| 1800 | ||
| 1803 | ||
| 1807 | ||
| 1810 | ||
| 1816 | ||
| 1818 | ||
| 1819 | ||
| 1823 | ||
| 1827 | ||
| 1834 | ||
| 1837 | 1837 | |
| 1843 | ||
| 1845 | ||
| 1850 | ||
| 1854 | ||
| 1857 | ||
| 1861 | ||
| 1864 | ||
| 1870 | ||
| 1872 | ||
| 1873 | ||
| 1877 | ||
| 1881 | ||
| 1888 | ||
| 1891 | 1891 | |
| 1897 | ||
| 1899 | ||
| 1904 | ||
| 1908 | ||
| 1911 | ||
| 1915 | ||
| 1918 | ||
| 1924 | ||
| 1926 | ||
| 1927 | ||
| 1931 | ||
| 1935 | ||
| 1942 | ||
| 1945 | 1945 | |
| 1951 | ||
| 1953 | ||
| 1958 | ||
| 1962 | ||
| 1965 | ||
| 1969 | ||
| 1972 | ||
| 1978 | ||
| 1980 | ||
| 1981 | ||
| 1985 | ||
| 1989 | ||
| 1996 | ||
| 1999 | 1999 | |
| 2005 | ||
| 2007 | ||
| 2012 | ||
| 2016 | ||
| 2019 | ||
| 2023 | ||
| 2026 | ||
| 2032 | ||
| 2034 | ||
| 2035 | ||
| 2039 | ||
| 2043 | ||
| 2050 | ||
| 2053 | 2053 | |
| 2059 |
References
- ↑ Benner, Samuel (29 June 2008). Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices: What Years to Make Money on Pig-Iron, Hogs, Corn, and Provisions (1875). Kessinger Publishing. ISBN 978-1436787369.
- ↑ Constance Brown (2010). Fibonacci Analysis. Wiley. p. 101. ISBN 9780470883242.
- 1 2 "Samuel Benner (1832-1913) - Author".
- ↑ Protonotarios, Giorgos. "The Cyclicality of Financial Markets and Benner's Cycle". TradingCenter.
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