Wave elections in the United States

The 1974 midterm elections resulted in net Democratic Party gains of 49 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Watergate scandal, which resulted in the resignation of President Richard Nixon in August, contributed to the ousting of incumbents of both parties in favor of challengers known as "Watergate Babies"

Wave elections in the United States are elections in which a political party makes major gains. Based on the "red states and blue states" color coding convention in use since 2000, wave elections have often been described as either "blue waves" or "red waves" depending on which party makes significant gains, referring to a major increase in seats held by either the Democratic Party, associated with blue, or the Republican Party, associated with red.

Wave elections usually happen during midterm elections. For instance, the Republican Revolution occurred during the 1994 midterm elections, in which Newt Gingrich rose to prominence as the leader of the House Republican Conference, and the Republican Party regained control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate during the presidency of Bill Clinton.

There is no consensus definition of what level of gains is necessary to constitute a wave election.

Terminology

Political analyst Charlie Cook describes wave elections as the result of an "overarching, nationwide dynamic", such as a high or low presidential approval rating, economic conditions, and scandals. Cook contrasts wave elections with "micro-elections" in which neither party makes significant gains, and candidates, local issues, and other factors not strictly related to party alignment have a stronger role than in wave elections. Although several wave elections may occur in a row, wave elections are usually considered to be the exception rather than the norm. A pick-up of 20 seats in the United States House of Representatives has been used as a cut-off point by analysts such as Stuart Rothenberg. However, political scientist Dan Hopkins has argued that the term has little utility in understanding elections and that there is no clear cut-off point between a wave election and other elections.

Congressional incumbents in the United States enjoy an electoral advantage over challengers, but a wave election often boosts challengers, resulting in many more incumbents losing than usual during wave elections. A wave election can put into play seats that would otherwise be considered safe for the party holding the seat, and help even flawed challengers defeat incumbents. Since at least 1954, wave elections have always benefited one party at the expense of the other, but the term has also been used to describe a hypothetical scenario in which numerous incumbents from both parties lose their seats. The first election after redistricting is often a wave election, since many incumbents are less firmly rooted in their districts following redistricting, and many other incumbents retire or suffer primary defeats.

A wave election may also be concurrent with a landslide election, a term which usually refers to decisive victories in presidential contests. Many wave elections occur during midterm elections, with the party out of power picking up seats. A common pattern involves a party with a victorious presidential candidate benefiting from a wave election, followed by the opposing party winning a wave election in the next midterm election. Such occurred:

Examples in the House

Examples in the Senate

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Murse, Tim. "5 Biggest Wave Elections". About.com. Archived from the original on April 6, 2014. Retrieved June 20, 2014.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Abramowitz, Alan (December 22, 2011). "The Anti-Incumbent Election Myth". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved June 23, 2014.
  3. ↑ "Wave elections (1918-2016)/Full report". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 15, 2019.
  4. ↑ Green, Matthew (2018). "Was it a 'blue wave' or not? That depends on how you define a 'wave.'". The Washington Post.
  5. 1 2 Cook, Charlie (July 29, 2013). "Midterm Elections Could Be a Wave, But Who's Going to Drown?". National Journal. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013. Retrieved June 20, 2014.
  6. 1 2 3 Cook, Charlie (April 19, 2011). "Wave Elections Might Be Washed Up for Now". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved June 20, 2014.
  7. 1 2 3 Bai, Matt (June 8, 2010). "Democrat in Chief?". New York Times. Retrieved June 24, 2014.
  8. ↑ Murse, Tom. "What is a Wave Election?". About.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2014. Retrieved June 20, 2014.
  9. ↑ Rothenberg, Stuart (February 3, 2011). "Are We Headed for Four Wave Elections in a Row?". Rothenberg Report. Archived from the original on February 9, 2011. Retrieved June 20, 2014.
  10. ↑ Hopkins, Dan (September 9, 2010). "Waves are for Surfing". Monkey Cage. Archived from the original on January 7, 2023. Retrieved June 23, 2014.
  11. ↑ Demissie, Hannah (November 5, 2026). "'Extinction-level event', 'blue tsunami': How Republicans eyeing 2028 are taking midterm losses". ABC News. Retrieved November 5, 2026.
  12. ↑ Egan, Patrick J.; Perry, Stephanie (November 4, 2026). "5 key insights from the NBC News Exit Poll about the blue tsunami". NBC News. Retrieved November 5, 2026.
  13. ↑ Fowler, Stephen (November 5, 2026). "The South flexes political power in midterms, sets regional influence in 2028 election". NPR. Retrieved November 5, 2026.

Notes

  1. ↑ This was before the passage of the 17th amendment, so Senators were chosen by State Legislatures.
  2. ↑ Although Harry S. Truman was president when the elections took place that year.
  3. ↑ Though Joe Lieberman (CT) won on the Connecticut for Lieberman ticket, he referred to himself as an independent Democrat and was listed on the Senate website as ID-CT.