Daniel Nagin

Daniel S. Nagin
Born (1948-11-29) November 29, 1948 (age 77)
EducationCarnegie Mellon University
Awards2014 Stockholm Prize in Criminology, 2006 Edwin H. Sutherland Award from the American Society of Criminology
Scientific career
FieldsCriminology, statistics
WorkplacesHeinz College at Carnegie Mellon University
Thesis An Investigation into the Association Between Crime and Sanctions  (1976)

Daniel S. Nagin (born November 29, 1948) is an American criminologist and statistician who is the Lester Hamburg University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College. He is also a Max Planck Law Fellow, a position to which he was appointed in August 2021 by the Max Planck Society. He holds this position at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law in Freiburg and the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods in Bonn. He was Heinz College's Associate Dean of Faculty from 2006 to 2026.

His research focuses on criminal behavior, deterrence, and statistical methods for longitudinal data analysis, particularly group-based trajectory modeling. He was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2025 and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2023, and received the Stockholm Prize in Criminology in 2014.

Education

In 1971, Nagin earned a B.S. in Administrative and Managerial Sciences and an M.S. in Industrial Administration from Carnegie Mellon University's Graduate School of Industrial Administration, now the Tepper School of Business. He received Ph.D. from what is now the university's Heinz College in 1976.

Career

Nagin began his academic career in 1976 as an assistant professor of public policy at Duke University. After working at Cambridge Systematics from 1978 to 1979, he joined Carnegie Mellon University as an associate professor of public policy and operations research. From 1981 to 1986, he served as Deputy Secretary for Fiscal Policy and Analysis at the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue.

Nagin returned to Carnegie Mellon in 1986 as an associate professor of management and became a full professor in 1990. He was appointed the Teresa and H. John Heinz III Professor of Public Policy and Statistics in 1999 and received the rank of University Professor in 2008. In 2024, he became the Lester Hamburg University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics.

He directed a research program of the National Consortium on Violence Research at Carnegie Mellon from 1997 to 2003 and held visiting appointments at the University of Cambridge and Russell Sage Foundation. He served as president of the American Society of Criminology in 2021.

Research

Nagin's research focuses on criminal deterrence, patterns of criminal behavior over the life course, and statistical methods for longitudinal data analysis. He chaired the National Research Council's Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty, whose 2012 report concluded that existing research was insufficient to determine whether capital punishment deters crime.

Nagin also developed group-based trajectory modeling, a statistical method used to identify patterns of behavioral development over time. Introduced in a 1999 article and further developed in his 2005 book Group-Based Modeling of Development, the method has been applied in criminology, psychology, and medical research. Subsequent work extended its applications to multiple behavioral trajectories and related statistical analyses.

Honors and awards

References

  1. 1 2 "Nagin, Daniel". Library of Congress.
  2. 1 2 "Press Release: Carnegie Mellon's Daniel S. Nagin Awarded 2014 Stockholm Prize in Criminology". Carnegie Mellon University. 30 October 2013. Retrieved 23 January 2016.
  3. ↑ "Daniel S. Nagin". Committee on Law and Justice. Archived from the original on 27 August 2016. Retrieved 23 January 2016.
  4. ↑ "National Academy of Sciences Elects Members and International Members - NAS". nasonline.org. Retrieved 2026-07-03.
  5. ↑ "Prof. Dr. Daniel Nagin". csl.mpg.de. Retrieved 2026-07-03.
  6. ↑ "Daniel S. Nagin | American Academy of Arts and Sciences". www.amacad.org. 2026-07-02. Retrieved 2026-07-03.
  7. 1 2 3 4 "Daniel Nagin". Carnegie Mellon University. Archived from the original on 30 January 2016. Retrieved 23 January 2016.
  8. ↑ "Daniel Nagin – Curriculum Vitae" (PDF). Carnegie Mellon University. Retrieved 2026-10-21.
  9. ↑ "Daniel Nagin". Carnegie Mellon University. Retrieved 2026-10-21.
  10. ↑ "Daniel Nagin on the Enduring Influence of the Tepper School and CMU's Interdisciplinary Culture". Carnegie Mellon University. 2025-02-25. Retrieved 2026-10-21.
  11. ↑ "Daniel Nagin – Curriculum Vitae" (PDF). Carnegie Mellon University. Retrieved 2026-10-21.
  12. ↑ "Daniel S. Nagin CV" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 September 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2016.
  13. ↑ Ehrenfreund, Max (30 April 2013). "There's still no evidence that executions deter criminals". Washington Post. Retrieved 23 January 2016.
  14. ↑ Vergano, Dan (18 April 2012). "NRC: Death penalty effect research "fundamentally flawed"". USA Today. Retrieved 3 October 2016.
  15. ↑ Nagin, Daniel S. (2005). Group-Based Modeling of Development. Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0-674-01686-6.
  16. ↑ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (2004-09-13). "Analyzing developmental trajectories: An overview of a group-based approach - ARCHIVED". www150.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved 2026-07-03.
  17. ↑ Nagin, Daniel; Tremblay, Richard E. (1999). "Trajectories of Boys' Physical Aggression, Opposition, and Hyperactivity on the Path to Physically Violent and Nonviolent Juvenile Delinquency". Child Development. 70 (5): 1181–1196. ISSN 0009-3920.
  18. ↑ Nagin, Daniel S.; Odgers, Candice L. (2010-12-01). "Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (Nearly) Two Decades Later". Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 26 (4): 445–453. doi:10.1007/s10940-010-9113-7. ISSN 1573-7799. PMC 2994902. PMID 21132047.
  19. ↑ "Congratulations to Daniel S. Nagin, winner of the 2017 NAS Award for Scientific Reviewing". Annual Reviews News. 2017-01-25. Retrieved 2018-01-24.
  20. ↑ "Congratulations to Daniel S. Nagin, winner of the 2017 NAS Award for Scientific Reviewing". Annual Reviews News. 2017-01-25. Retrieved 2018-01-24.
  21. ↑ "Stockholm Prize - Carnegie Mellon University | CMU". www.cmu.edu. Retrieved 2026-07-03.