Dummymandering

Republicans carried 10 of North Carolina's 14 congressional districts in the 2024 US House elections, even though the party only received 53% of the congressional vote.
However, Democrats carried between 10 and 13 of the 14 districts in the state's 2026 elections, due in part to a 2026 redistricting that was meant to shift an additional seat to the Republicans.

In politics, dummymandering (a portmanteau of dummy and gerrymandering) is a gerrymandering effort that backfires by harming the party it was meant to benefit. Originally the term was described as "a gerrymander by one party that, over the course of the decade, benefits the other party, and actually looks as if it was designed by that party rather than the party in power". Many notable examples exist in the United States, but they have also been seen in various other countries, including Hungary and Ireland.

Over time, the term has also been used to describe any election when drawing districts that backfire against the party they are designed to help, when maps are drawn without consideration for long-term partisan shifts, or where shifts happen unexpectedly over the period of the map's utilization despite being initially unforeseen, such as a wave election.

Dummymandering may occur when map makers are too confident in predicting changes in the electorate, or by being overly confident about the power of incumbency. In practice, a dummymander may occur when map makers attempt to crack votes, such as splitting large population centers into multiple districts relative to the population. Using too few districts to properly split up a large population center can cause the partisan lean of a district to be competitive in certain political environments, where potentially more seats will go to the party that was aimed to be disadvantaged by the map.

Dummymanders are most common in countries that use first-past-the-post voting systems, but have been seen in other systems including the single-transferable vote in Ireland in 1977 and Hungary's mixed member system.

History

The term was first coined by political scientists Bernard Grofman and Thomas L. Brunell in 2005, in the book Redistricting in the New Millennium. In the chapter The Art of the Dummymander, the two studied many southern states in the 1990s, where Democratic controlled legislatures drew congressional and state legislative maps that would favor Democrats while also complying with the Voting Rights Act, but the maps spread Democratic voters out thinly, which let Republicans flip control of many state legislatures, including Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi.

The term gained prominence in 2025 as mainstream media organizations and political scientists began to use the word to describe Texas's and other states' attempts to redraw their congressional maps to favor the Republican Party. The redistricting efforts left some previously safe districts competitive, and many of them flipped during the Democratic wave of the 2026 midterm elections, with losses in states with redrawn districts intended to favor Republicans, like Texas and Ohio, considered dummymanders.

Notable examples

Ireland

In Ireland, a dummymander was seen in the 1977 general election. The Irish electoral system, the single transferable vote, is somewhat proportional when five seats are available in a constituency, but when only three seats are available it is less proportional.[citation needed] In 1974 the Labour and Fine Gael entered a coalition and amended the constituency boundaries in an attempt to limit the main opposition party, Fianna Fáil by using 3-seat constituencies in Dublin, The plan was to draw the boundaries in such a way that Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would each receive 1 seat in each constituency, giving Fine Geal and Labour a combined 2-1 lead over Fianna Fail. However, Fianna Fáil received sufficient votes to win 2 seats in most constituencies and inverted the gerrymander, usually taking a seat that Labour had hoped to win. The failed plan became known as the 'Tullymander' after its architect, Labour TD James Tully. An independent Constituency Commission was established as a result.

Hungary

In 2026, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán lost relection in a landslide defeat despite his Fidesz party reorganising Hungary's electoral arrangements to benefit themselves since 2014. This included gerrymandering electoral districts, malapportionment, and allowing voters to cast votes outside of their home district, and undermining the compensatory list element of the electoral system. These arrangements allowed Fidesz to win two-thirds majorities in 2014, 2018 and 2022 despite not receiving a majority of the votes in 2014 or 2018. In 2026 his party was defeated by Péter Magyar and his Tisza party which gathered several opposition parties under a single joint movement which reduced vote splitting and a united front against Fidesz. The party galvanised supporters by anger at the country's pivot towards Russia, increasing authoritarianism and declining respect for the rule of law.

Fidesz had won 87/106 constituency seats in 2022, they were reduced to just 10 in 2026. The party collected a further 43 from the non-compensatory list vote. Ironically, had Fidesz maintained the pre-2014 compensatory list vote they would have won more seats and prevented Tisza from receiving a two-thirds majority. Two-thirds majorities permit amendments to the Hungarian constitution, so Fidesz's dummymander and eroding of the compensatory mechanism have allowed Tisza to set about undoing much of Orbán's legacy, including removing his close ally, President Tamás Sulyok.

United States

19th century

During the 1894 United States elections, the Democratic Party aggressively redrew congressional districts to favor the party after the 1890 United States Census. However, they failed to take into account the Panic of 1893, in which support for the party collapsed. The Democrats subsequently lost 120 seats to the Republicans and seven seats to the Populist Party.

21st century

In 2001, Republicans in Pennsylvania drew a congressional map that favored the party in a 12–7 majority, despite the state being competitive and voting to elect Al Gore in the 2000 Presidential election. However, many of the districts were drawn with potentially competitive margins. During the 2006 House of Representatives elections, the unpopularity of George Bush resulted in a large Democratic wave year, where Democrats in Pennsylvania were able to flip four seats resulting in a 11–8 majority. Two years later, during the 2008 United States House of Representatives elections, Democrats flipped one more seat, bringing the partisan split to a 12–7 Democratic majority.

In 2011, Democrats in Arkansas drew its congressional map to retain their 3 out of 4 seats, but ended up drawing 4 districts won by John McCain in 2010. Also in 2011, Republicans in Texas drew the Texas House of Representatives map to favor Republicans in 8 out of 14 seats in Dallas County after the 2010 United States Census. However, the Republicans in the state legislature failed to take into account population growth and demographic shifts, and during the 2018 Texas House of Representatives election, Democrats managed to flip five of the seats, bringing an even 7–7 split to a 12–2 Democratic majority. This was because when attempting to split the city of Dallas, a Democratic stronghold, with the more Republican suburbs, Republicans ended up diluting their own voter base instead.

2026 United States midterm elections

In 2025 and 2026, Republican states were urged by President Donald Trump to “create more seats" for Republicans before the 2026 election. Following redistricting in Texas, which suggested gaining five seats, Republicans in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio passed new congressional district maps, in an attempt to gain 1–2 seats each. After the Louisiana v. Callais ruling by the US Supreme Court, Republicans in Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama also redrew their maps by diluting black voting power. However, in a setback for Republicans, the Missouri Supreme Court struck down their state's map and reinstated the 2022 map for the 2026 election.

When redrawing their maps, Republicans mainly used voting data from the 2024 presidential election to benefit from the shift of Hispanic voters to the right. Many districts that went for Trump by 30 points were reduced to 20 points or less in order to maximize pickups. However, they did not consider that Hispanic voters would swing back to Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections, resulting in Democrats maintaining or gaining seats in the heavily-Hispanic states of Florida and Texas, respectively. On the other hand, Democrats gained in North Carolina and Ohio due to the seats being made less Republican to flip others, although Ohio's map had only minor changes from the previous map. Democrats gained a majority of US House seats in North Carolina for the first time since 2010 and in Ohio since 2008.[citation needed]

Attempts by Republicans to redraw maps in 2026 in Indiana and South Carolina may also have led to dummymanders in those states. In Utah, the court-imposed map for 2026, which was designed to create a compact seat in Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County, Utah, may have kept an additional seat in Republican hands. An analysis after the election found that, had the old maps been in place, Democrats would have won two of the state's four seats instead of the one seat in Salt Lake County.

Because President Trump initiated this particular case of dummymandering, user Dr Dreidel of Fark coined a new neologism, this time portmanteauing the diminutive of the President’s given name along with the existing portmanteau to form the new term “Donnymandering.”

See also

References

  1. 1 2 "Dummymander - Political Dictionary". politicaldictionary.com. May 11, 2026. Retrieved June 8, 2026.
  2. 1 2 Grofman, Bernard; Burnell, Thomas. Galderisi, Peter (ed.). "The Art of the Dummymander" (PDF). ISBN 9780739107188.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: periodical has ISBN (link)
  3. 1 2 Graham, David A. (February 23, 2026). "The Revenge of the Dummymander". The Atlantic. Retrieved June 8, 2026.
  4. ↑ Grofman, Bernard; Cerves, Jonathan R. (March 31, 2020). "The Terminology of Districting". SSRN 3540444.
  5. ↑ Brunell, Thomas (February 13, 2006). "Rethinking Redistricting: How Drawing Uncompetitive Districts Eliminates Gerrymanders, Enhances Representation, and Improves Attitudes toward Congress". PS: Political Science & Politics. 39 (1): 77–85 – via Cambridge University Press.
  6. ↑ "States are redistricting to help one party but sometimes the move can backfire". AP News. October 16, 2025. Archived from the original on May 12, 2026. Retrieved September 26, 2026.
  7. ↑ "Did Republican efforts to redistrict the House turn into a dummymander? A state-by-state guide". CBS News. November 5, 2026. Retrieved November 6, 2026.
  8. ↑ "Lynch and the Tullymander". The Irish Times. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  9. ↑ Boyle, Denis (October, 2009). "Tully, James". Dictionary of Irish Biography. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  10. ↑ "Lynch and the Tullymander". The Irish Times. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  11. ↑ "How Viktor Orbán Wins". Journal of Democracy. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  12. ↑ Friedman, Andrew; Ruy, Donatienne (April 27, 2026). "Hungary After Orbán: The Hard Road Back to Democracy". {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  13. ↑ Kassam, Ashifa; Garamvolgyi, Flora (April 10, 2026). "Who is Péter Magyar, the man leading the polls as Hungary prepares for election?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  14. ↑ "How Viktor Orbán Wins". Journal of Democracy. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  15. ↑ "Hungary parliament votes to remove president from office". BBC News. July 13, 2026. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  16. ↑ "How Redistricting Turned a Setback Into a Bloodbath". POLITICO. November 10, 2025. Retrieved September 24, 2026.
  17. ↑ Vargas, Claudia (January 8, 2020). "Republicans 'got greedy' in drawing Pennsylvania congressional maps, new documents say". Inquirer.com. Retrieved September 26, 2026.
  18. ↑ "Pennsylvania - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Retrieved September 26, 2026.
  19. ↑ Daley, David (July 20, 2025). "Can Texas GOP steal the midterms in advance? Yes, they can". Salon. Archived from the original on July 20, 2025. Retrieved November 11, 2026.
  20. ↑ Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman (September 9, 2021). "Redistricting in America, Part Eight: A Quick Summation of a Long Series - Sabato's Crystal Ball". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 20, 2025. Retrieved November 11, 2026.
  21. ↑ Ura, Alexa; Essig, Chris; Cameron, Darla (November 7, 2018). "In Dallas County, Republican gerrymandering backfired in 2018". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved September 26, 2026.
  22. ↑ "Trump on Texas redistricting: 'We are entitled to 5 more seats'". POLITICO. Retrieved November 4, 2026.
  23. ↑ Goodman, J. David; Goldmacher, Shane (July 9, 2025). "Abbott Asks Lawmakers to Redraw Texas' Congressional Maps in Special Session". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 4, 2026.
  24. ↑ Levine, Sam (May 14, 2026). "US southern states rush to redraw electoral maps to dilute Black voting power". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 5, 2026.
  25. ↑ Russell, Alex (October 15, 2026). "How a Supreme Court Voting Rights Ruling Echoes the End of Reconstruction | lettersandsciencemag". lettersandsciencemag.ucdavis.edu. Retrieved November 5, 2026.
  26. ↑ Lieb, -David A.; Lieb, Associated Press David A.; Press, Associated (September 25, 2026). "Supreme Court rejects Trump-backed Missouri congressional map for third time". PBS News. Retrieved November 5, 2026.
  27. ↑ Lange, Jason; Erickson, Bo; Heath, Brad; Lange, Jason; Erickson, Bo; Heath, Brad (November 7, 2024). "Trump's return to power fueled by Hispanic, working-class voter support". Reuters. Retrieved November 5, 2026.
  28. ↑ Nationwide, Susan Carpenter. "Two-thirds of Latino voters supported Democratic candidates in midterms". spectrumlocalnews.com. Retrieved November 5, 2026.
  29. ↑ Lieb, David A. (November 4, 2026). "Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a midterm edge. It didn't work". AP News. Retrieved November 4, 2026.
  30. ↑ Meador, Marissa (November 7, 2026). "'It's a good thing they failed': Did Indiana GOP avoid a redistricting backfire?". Indy Star. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  31. ↑ McCracken, Ford (November 5, 2026). "Failed GOP redistricting in South Carolina, Indiana would have backfired: DDHQ". The Hill. Retrieved November 12, 2026.
  32. ↑ "How Utah's redistricting fight may have backfired on Democrats and spared Republicans a bigger loss". Fox 13 Now. November 5, 2026. Retrieved November 7, 2026.
  33. ↑ Dreidel, Dr. "Comment on FARK thread on this Wikipedia article". FARK. Retrieved November 15, 2026.