Joseph Smagorinsky

Joseph Smagorinsky
Joseph Smagorinsky
Born(1924-01-29)January 29, 1924
New York City, New York, US
DiedSeptember 21, 2005(2005-09-21) (aged 81)
EducationNew York University
Known forGeneral Circulation Model
SpouseMargaret Smagorinsky
Scientific career
FieldsMeteorology
WorkplacesNational Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
Princeton University
Bernhard Haurwitz

Joseph Smagorinsky (29 January 1924 – 21 September 2005) was an American meteorologist and the first director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Early life

Joseph Smagorinsky was born to Nathan Smagorinsky and Dina Azaroff. His parents were from Gomel, Belarus, which they fled during the pogroms of the early 20th century. Nathan and Dina bore three sons in Gomel: Jacob (who died as an infant), Samuel (born 1903), and David (born 1907). In 1913, Nathan emigrated from the coast of Finland, passing through Ellis Island and settling on the Lower East Side of Manhattan. Nathan at first was a house painter. Then, with the help of a relative, he opened a paint store. In 1916, with the business established, Dina, Sam, and David emigrated by going to Murmansk and then southward along the Norwegian coast to Christiana (now Oslo) and boarding a boat to New York where they joined Nathan. They had two other children: Hillel (Harry) (born 1919) and Joseph (born 1924).

Like his three brothers, Joseph worked in their father's paint store, which over the years evolved into a hardware and paint store. Sam and Harry stayed in the painting and hardware business, with Harry eventually taking ownership of the original store. As a teenager, David began painting signs for shop owners and subsequently opened a sign painting business.

Education and early career

Smagorinsky attended Stuyvesant High School in Manhattan. He then earned his B.S. (1947), M.S. (1948), and Ph.D. (1953) at New York University (NYU). In the middle of his sophomore year at NYU, he entered the Air Force and joined a group of cadet recruits, chosen for their talents in mathematics and physic, for the meteorology program. He and other recruits were sent to Brown University to study mathematics and physics for six months. He was then sent to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) to learn dynamical meteorology. His instructor was Edward Lorenz. During the war Smagorinsky flew in the nose of bombers as a weather observer, making weather forecasts based on visible factors such as the estimated size of wave, observed air temperature, and wind velocity at the plane's altitude.

Following the war, Smagorinsky concluded his studies. He originally aspired to be a naval architect, but was not admitted to the Webb Institute. He then turned to meteorology as a career and educational focus. As a doctoral student, while serving the remainder of his army commitment, he attended a lecture on weather forecasting conducted by Jule Charney, and asked a series of questions during the question-and-answer session following the talk. Charney, a prominent atmospheric scientist, invited Smagorinsky to the Institute for Advanced Study to examine the possible predictability of large-scale motions in the middle troposphere using the new electronic computer being designed by John von Neumann.

In April 1950, with Ragnar Fjørtoft, John Freeman, and George Platzman, he worked with Charney to solve Charney's simplest equations on the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC). His wife Margaret Smagorinsky (née Knoepfel) was also a member of the team that programmed the ENIAC computer, and was the first woman statistician hired by the Weather Bureau. Von Neumann's new Princeton computer had been delayed so arrangements were made with the Army to use its computer in Aberdeen, Maryland. The results were realistic enough to demonstrate that weather prediction by numerical process was a promising prospect. After the ENIAC work, Smagorinsky moved to the Institute for Advanced Study to work with Charney and von Neumann on the development of a new approach to weather forecasting that employed the computer.

At the Institute for Advanced Study, von Neumann used his mathematical knowledge and Smagorinsky worked with Charney to develop a new approach called numerical weather prediction. This approach relied on data collected from weather balloons. The data were then fed into computers and subjected to the laws of physics, enabling forecasts of how turbulence, water, heat, and other factors interacted to produce weather patterns Smagorinsky also visited his children's elementary school classrooms to demonstrate how weather balloons worked.

In his doctoral dissertation, conducted at NYU under the direction of Bernhard Haurwitz, Smagorinsky developed a theory for how heat sources and sinks in mid-latitudes, created by the thermal contrast between land and oceans, disturb the path of the jet stream. This theory provided one of the first applications of Jule Charney's simplification of the equations of motion for the atmosphere, now known as quasi-geostrophic theory. This work benefited from interactions with Charney at the Institute for Advanced Study. This theory has been elaborated over the years to provide insights into the maintenance of the climate in mid-latitudes and the interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes.

Leadership of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

A photograph of Smagorinsky taken at GFDL.

Following his apprenticeship and work with von Neumann and Charney, in 1953, at age 29, Smagorinsky accepted a position at the U.S. Weather Bureau and was among the pioneers of the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction (JNWP) Unit. In 1955, at von Neumann's instigation, the U.S. Weather Bureau created a General Circulation Research Section under Smagorinsky's direction. Smagorinsky felt that his duty was to continue with the final step of the von Neumann/Charney computer modeling program: a three-dimensional, global, primitive-equation general circulation model of the atmosphere. The General Circulation Research Section was initially located in Suitland, Maryland, near the Weather Bureau's JNWP unit. The section moved to Washington, D.C., and was renamed the General Circulation Research Laboratory in 1959 and then renamed again to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in 1963. The lab moved to its current home at Princeton University in 1968. Smagorinsky continued to direct the lab until his retirement in January 1983.

Smagorinsky's key insight was that the increasing power of computers would allow progress beyond simulating the evolution of the atmosphere for a few days, as in weather prediction, and toward the simulation of the Earth's climate. The intention of such simulations is not to predict the detailed evolution of the weather, but integrating the equations of motion, thermodynamics, and radiative transfer for long enough time periods to simulate the climate, enabling one to study how these statistics were controlled by the atmospheric composition, the character of the Earth's surface, and the circulation of the oceans.

Two scientists that Smagorinsky recruited to the GFDL were climate modeler Syukuro Manabe in 1959 and ocean modeler Kirk Bryan in 1961, who spearheaded the development of the first climate model in 1969, a general circulation model that was the first approach to take into account the interactions of oceans and atmosphere. Smagorinsky assigned Manabe to the General Circulation Model (GCM) coding and development effort. By 1963, Smagorinsky, Manabe, and their collaborators had completed a nine-level, hemispheric primitive-equation General Circulation Model. Manabe was given a large programming staff and was thus able to focus on mathematical structure of the models, without becoming overly involved in coding. In 1955–56, Smagorinsky collaborated with John von Neumann, Jule Charney, and Norman Phillips to develop a 2-level, zonal hemispheric model using a subset of the primitive equations. Beginning in 1959, he proceeded to develop a nine-level primitive-equation General Circulation Model (still hemispheric). By the end of the next decade, GCMs emerged globally as a central tool in climate research. Other researchers who worked with Smagorinsky in Washington and Princeton included Isidoro Orlanski, Jerry Mahlman, Yoshio Kurihara, Kikuro Miyakoda, Rod Graham, Leith Holloway, Isaac Held, Garreth Williams, George Philander, and Douglas Lilly.

Development of this first climate model was based on Smagorinsky's belief that individual inquiry would be inadequate for addressing such a complex problem. He realized that it would take large-scale numerical modeling with teams of scientists using commonly shared high-speed computers to achieve such a breakthrough. As stated in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 1992, "Dr. Smagorinsky's almost relentless pursuit of excellence at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory set a standard for other laboratories and centers that have contributed immensely to the growth of meteorology as a science" throughout the world. Michael MacCracken, president of International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, wrote following Smagorinsky's death: "From its earliest days, GFDL has been world renowned, with an outstanding set of scientists doing outstanding work that attracted scientists from around the world to come to learn and collaborate – and then return to their home countries or other institutions as outstanding scientists. Not only a whole new scientific field of investigation, but a community of scientists capable of doing it well has been created."

Smagorinsky was among the earliest researchers who sought to exploit new methods of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend forecasting past one or two days. Smagorinsky published a seminal paper in 1963 on his research using primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics to simulate the atmosphere's circulation. This paper fundamentally changed the approach to modeling climate. He extended early weather models to include variables such as wind, cloud cover, precipitation, atmospheric pressure and radiation emanating from the earth and sun. In order to make these simulations possible, a method was needed to account for atmospheric turbulence that occurred on scales smaller than the model's grid size but still played a crucial role in the atmospheric energy cycle. With colleagues Douglas Lilly and James Deardorff, both at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), he developed one of the first successful approaches to large eddy simulation (e.g., the Smagorinsky-Lilly model), providing a solution to this problem that is still in use, not only in meteorology, but in all fields involving fluid dynamics.

Smagorinsky earned fame for his ability to secure the world's fastest computers for his laboratory several times. Many wondered how a single government scientist had such leverage in the highly competitive battle for limited resources. Jerry Mahlman wrote: "Without the level of scientific and computational support provided by [Smagorinsky], these achievements [global warming awareness, sophisticated computer models, extended weather forecasting] would have required at least another decade of development to achieve."[citation needed]

Influence on global warming research

In the 1970s, under Smagorinsky's direction, scientists at his laboratory devised the first simulations of the response of climate to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, providing the first modern estimates of climate sensitivity and emphasizing the importance of water vapor feedback and stratospheric cooling. Scientists at the laboratory also developed the first coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models for studies of global warming, emphasizing the important differences between the "equilibrium" and "transient" responses to increasing carbon dioxide.

Smagorinsky led and contributed to international committees to improve global weather forecasts. Coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization, the efforts led to the first use of satellites to measure temperature and moisture. Tony Hollingsworth of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) made the point in his remarks at the Princeton lecture after Smagorinsky was presented with the Benjamin Franklin Medal in Earth Science that Smagorinsky's work resulted in saving millions of lives around the world with severe weather predictions. He reiterated the remark in his letter to GFDL following Smagorinsky's memorial service.[citation needed]

Later career

The year GFDL moved to Princeton University, Smagorinsky was named a visiting lecturer with the rank of professor in geological and geophysical sciences at the university. He helped develop the Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, a doctoral program in the Department of Geosciences that collaborates closely with the GFDL. Following his retirement as director of the GFDL in 1983, he served as a visiting senior fellow in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at Princeton until 1998. "Dr. Smagorinsky, a major player in the move of the GFDL to Princeton more than 30 years ago, in effect provided Princeton University with a graduate program," said George Philander, a professor of geosciences and director of the Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

He was the Scientific Research Society national lecturer from 1983 to 1985[citation needed] and president of American Meteorological Society for 1986. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences membership in 1986. He was a member of the Presidential Scientific Advisory Committee Panel on Pollution and the National Research Council's Committee on Atmospheric Science.

Awards and recognition

Selected publications

Personal life and death

Smagorinsky was married to Margaret Smagorinsky from May 29, 1948, to his death at age 81 on September 21, 2005. They met while taking classes at New York University, where Margaret was preparing for a career as a meteorological statistician. Margaret became the Weather Bureau's first female statistician. The couple had two wedding ceremonies. One was a Catholic ceremony at Margaret's mother's insistence; the other was a civil ceremony in the Georgetown garden of Judge Fay Bently. This ceremony was attended only by the required 2 witnesses, Jerry Moss and Margaret's sister Alice Williams. Joseph and Margaret considered this smaller gathering to be their official wedding, given the ways in which his Jewish family and her Catholic family opposed the union. Following their marriage, Margaret chose to stay at home and raise their five children, Anne, Peter, Teresa, Julia, and Frederick.

At the memorial gathering at Guyot Hall, Princeton University in October 2005, following Smagorinsky's September death, he was honored with a story of his life, sung to the tune of Ervin Drake's "It Was a Very Good Year".[citation needed]

Margaret died on November 14, 2011, and was buried with him in Princeton Cemetery. On December 29, 2011, a memorial service was held for Margaret Smagorinsky at the Nassau Inn in Princeton, at which many of Smagorinsky's colleagues and their wives honored her role working with the GFDL during his tenure as founder and director.

References

  1. 1 2 "Joseph Smagorinsky: Visionary in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Modeling". NOAA 200th Celebration. US Department of Commerce. 2022-10-22. Archived from the original on 2023-03-05. Retrieved 2023-03-05.
  2. 1 2 Pearce, Jeremy (2005-09-30). "Joseph Smagorinsky, 81, a Pioneer in Weather Forecasting, Is Dead". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-03-05.
  3. ↑ Aspray, William (1990). John von Neumann and the Origins of Modern Computing. MIT Press. p. 303. ISBN 978-0-262-51885-7.
  4. ↑ Shepherd, Marshall (2017-01-24). "How A Woman You Never Heard Of Helped Enable Modern Weather Prediction". Forbes. Retrieved 2022-08-18.
  5. 1 2 "Obituary information for Margaret Smagorinsky". The Mather-Hodge Funeral Home. Retrieved 2026-09-05.
  6. ↑ Harper, Kristine; Doel, Ronald (January 2, 2006). "Transcript of Oral History Interview of Margaret Smagorinsky". American Meteorological Society University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.
  7. ↑ Quiñones, Eric (2005-09-29). "Pioneering meteorologist Smagorinsky dies". Princeton University. Retrieved 2023-03-05.
  8. 1 2 Witt, Stephen (2021-12-10). "The Man Who Predicted Climate Change". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2023-03-05.
  9. ↑ Prono, Luca (2023-03-01). "Smagorinsky Joseph 19242005". Climate Policy Watcher. Archived from the original on 2023-03-05. Retrieved 2023-03-05.
  10. ↑ Smagorinsky, Joseph. "The Long Range Eye of Jerry Narnias" (PDF). UC San Diego Library.
  11. ↑ "Joseph Smagorinsky". American Academy of Arts and Sciences. 10 April 2025. Retrieved 2026-09-05.
  12. ↑ "'Restoring the Quality of Our Environment,' Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, President's Science Advisory Committee". National Security Archive. November 1965. Retrieved 2026-09-05.
  13. ↑ "Joseph Smagorinsky". The Franklin Institute. 15 January 2014. Retrieved 2026-09-05.