November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 59.7% | ||||||||||||||||
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McConnell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McGrath: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate majority leader since 2015 and had represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, won reelection to his seventh and final term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.
The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville. Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early; this figure was far greater than usual.
Despite being outraised by tens of millions of dollars by McGrath, McConnell defeated McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points.

| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 342,660 | 82.80% | |
| Republican | C. Wesley Morgan | 25,588 | 6.18% | |
| Republican | Louis Grider | 13,771 | 3.33% | |
| Republican | Paul John Frangedakis | 11,957 | 2.89% | |
| Republican | Neren James | 10,693 | 2.58% | |
| Republican | Kenneth Lowndes | 5,548 | 1.34% | |
| Republican | Nicholas Alsager | 3,603 | 0.87% | |
| Total votes | 413,820 | 100.0% | ||
There were debates on March 5, 2020 and June 1, 2020.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Charles Booker |
Amy McGrath |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | June 10–22, 2020 | 556 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 10% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9% | 11% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6% | 3% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | May 2020 | – | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | April 2020 | – | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | January 2020 | – | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 247,037 | 45.41% | |
| Democratic | Charles Booker | 231,888 | 42.62% | |
| Democratic | Mike Broihier | 27,175 | 4.99% | |
| Democratic | Mary Ann Tobin | 11,108 | 2.04% | |
| Democratic | Maggie Joe Hilliard | 6,224 | 1.14% | |
| Democratic | Andrew Maynard | 5,974 | 1.10% | |
| Democratic | Bennie J. Smith | 5,040 | 0.93% | |
| Democratic | Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) | 3,629 | 0.67% | |
| Democratic | Eric Rothmuller | 2,995 | 0.55% | |
| Democratic | John R. Sharpensteen | 2,992 | 0.55% | |
| Total votes | 544,062 | 100.0% | ||
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate. All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.
Throughout the general election campaign, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist". He highlighted a comment McGrath made in 2018 in which she compared her reaction to Donald Trump's 2016 presidential victory to her reaction to the September 11 attacks.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos | Safe R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP | Likely R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538 | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
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| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Mitch McConnell (R) | $73,952,186 | $67,388,725 | $6,811,701 |
| Amy McGrath (D) | $96,331,682 | $92,942,100 | $3,389,583 |
| Barron Bradley (L) | $126,595 | $115,857 | $12,811 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Amy McGrath (D) |
Brad Barron (L) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 7.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% | – |
| Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 40% | – | – |
| Bluegrass Community & Technical College | October 12–28, 2020 | 250 (RV) | – | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
| Cygnal | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 40% | 5% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 12–15, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 42% | 4% | 3% |
| Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 746 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 52% | 37% | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 39% | 3% | 12% |
| 48% | 41% | – | 11% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 909 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Bluegrass Data (D) | July 25–29, 2020 | 3,020 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 4% | – |
| Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 793 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 36% | – | 12% |
| Spry Strategies (R) | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 33% | – | 12% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | July 7–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 7% | 7% |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 4% | 11% |
| RMG Research | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
| Bluegrass Data (D) | April 7–12, 2020 | 4,000 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 7% | – |
| Change Research (D) | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | January 8–13, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| Fabrizio Ward | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D) | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
with Charles Booker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Charles Booker (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 38% | 9% |
with Jim Gray
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Jim Gray (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | June 11–12, 2019 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
with Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–15, 2020 | 1,104 (V) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Feb 11–12, 2019 | 748 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Aug 15–16, 2017 | 645 (V) | – | 37% | 44% | 19% |
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 31% | 62% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Feb 11–12, 2019 | 748 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 61% | 8% |
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | 13% |
McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3. When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea; he said, "At the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close." He won the election by nearly 20%.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 1,233,315 | 57.76% | +1.57% | |
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 816,257 | 38.23% | −2.49% | |
| Libertarian | Brad Barron | 85,386 | 4.00% | +0.92% | |
| Write-in | 99 | 0.01% | -0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,135,057 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
McConnell won five of Kentucky's six congressional districts.
| District | McConnell | McGrath | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67% | 28% | James Comer |
| 2nd | 62% | 33% | Brett Guthrie |
| 3rd | 37% | 61% | John Yarmuth |
| 4th | 60% | 36% | Thomas Massie |
| 5th | 74% | 22% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 51% | 46% | Andy Barr |
McGrath raised a record-setting $94 million for her campaign. She raised $63 million more than any prior candidate had ever raised for a Kentucky political campaign. According to New Republic, she outraised McConnell by $27 million. According to The Hill, she outraised McConnell by more than $32 million.
Michael Sokolove of New Republic asserted that "Amy McGrath and other Senate candidates deceived donors to rake in far more cash than their Republican opponents. They got crushed anyway".
Partisan clients
Voter samples
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