Next Senedd election

Next Senedd election
← 2026
On or before 2 May 2030
All 96 seats to the Senedd
49 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth Helen Jenner Ken Skates
Party Plaid Cymru Reform Labour
Leader since 16 June 2023 21 September 2026 15 July 2026
Leader's seat Bangor Conwy Môn Bangor Conwy Môn Fflint Wrecsam
Last election 43 seats, 35.4% 34 seats, 29.3% 9 seats, 11.1%
Current seats 44 33 9
 
Leader Darren Millar Anthony Slaughter Jane Dodds
Party Conservative Green Liberal Democrats
Leader since 5 December 2024 21 December 2018 3 November 2017
Leader's seat Clwyd Caerdydd Penarth Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
Last election 7 seats, 10.7% 2 seats, 6.7% 1 seat, 4.5%
Current seats 7 2 1
Incumbent First Minister

Rhun ap Iorwerth
Plaid Cymru


An election for the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru) is due to held on 2 May 2030, to elect all 96 members to the Senedd. Under the provisions of the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, Senedd terms were reduced from five-year to four-year terms since the previous election. It will be the eighth devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999.

Electoral system

The Senedd has 96 members, elected through closed list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) in sixteen six-member constituencies. A boundary review modifying the boundaries of the 16 constituencies is expected prior to the 2030 election, and was launched by Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru on 9 September 2026. The new constituencies must sit within 10% of the Welsh average, so between 135,225 and 165,275 voters. The commission announced they could also consider bilingual names again if a Welsh-only name was unsuitable.

Voters are given one ballot, and vote for a political party or an independent candidate. The six members in their constituency are then distributed proportionally to the parties based on how many votes they received, electing the candidates in the order on their ranked party list. The ballot paper shows the list of (up to) eight candidates next to each party in order.

In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns, dies, or otherwise leaves office during the term, they are replaced by the member below them on their party's list. Should the relevant party's list for that constituency be exhausted, the seat remains vacant for the remainder of the term.

Opinion polling

Opinion polls have been held since the 2026 election.

Dates
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 PC Ref Lab Con Grn LD Others Lead
24-30 September 2026 More in Common Cavendish Cymru Unkown 32% 27% 18% 12% 6% 5% 1% 5
15-21 September 2026 Dan Thomas resigns as leader of Reform UK Wales, Helen Jenner is elected to replace him.
15 September 2026 YouGov ITV Wales 1,102 32% 27% 13% 11% 7% 5% 5% 5
13–24 August 2026 Survation YesCymru 1,023 33% 31% 14% 9% 6% 5% 2% 2
7 May 2026 2026 Senedd election – 35.4% 29.3% 11.1% 10.7% 6.7% 4.5% 2.3% 6.1

References

  1. ↑ "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 | Law Wales". law.gov.wales. Retrieved 8 May 2026.
  2. 1 2 "What's new at the 2026 Senedd election?". research.senedd.wales. Retrieved 8 May 2026.
  3. ↑ "2030 Review of Senedd Constituencies | DBCC". www.dbcc.gov.wales. 9 September 2026. Retrieved 27 September 2026.
  4. ↑ "Senedd constituencies to be redrawn again under new rules". Nation.Cymru. 9 September 2026. Archived from the original on 14 September 2026. Retrieved 14 September 2026.
  5. ↑ "SENEDD: The seats Wales voted in for the first time in May are already being redrawn, and the names could change too". Swansea Bay News. 11 September 2026. Archived from the original on 14 September 2026. Retrieved 14 September 2026.
  6. ↑ "New Welsh Senedd constituency names to be reviewed". BBC News. 13 September 2026. Retrieved 27 September 2026.
  7. ↑ "Your Senedd is Changing". senedd.wales. Retrieved 4 April 2026.
  8. ↑ "Plaid Cymru: Governing a Fragmented Wales". More in Common. 2 October 2026. Archived from the original on 2 October 2026. Retrieved 6 October 2026.
  9. ↑ "'Burnham bounce' for Labour in Westminster whilst Plaid and Reform hold steady in Senedd polling". ITV Wales. 15 September 2026. Archived from the original on 16 September 2026. Retrieved 16 September 2026.
  10. ↑ "Plaid Cymru narrowly ahead in a new opinion poll". Newyddion S4C (in Welsh). 11 September 2026. Archived from the original on 11 September 2026. Retrieved 11 September 2026.
  11. ↑ "Welsh Parliament election results 2026". bbc.co.uk. BBC News. 8 May 2026. Retrieved 8 May 2026.