Future-oriented technology analysis

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences. It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.

Definitions

YearDefinition
2004Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."
2013Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."

Methods

Methods and their families
MethodFamily
Agent based modelingModeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy processValuing/decision/economic
BackcastingDescriptive and matrices
BibliometricsMonitoring and intelligence, Statistics
BrainstormingCreativity
Cross impact analysisModeling and simulation, Statistics
DelphiExpert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analysesValuing/decision/economic
Relevance treeDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
RoadmappingDescriptive and matrices
ScenariosScenarios
Social impact assessmentDescriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysisDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamicsModeling and simulation
Technology assessmentDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZCreativity

References

  1. 1 2 Filip, F. G.; Dragomirescu, H.; Predescu, R.; Ilie, R. (2004). "IT tools for foresight studies". Studies in Informatics and Control (13): 161-168.
  2. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.
  3. ↑ Sánchez-Torres, J. M.; Miles, I. (16 December 2017). "The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review". European Journal of Futures Research. 5 (1): 15. doi:10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7. ISSN 2195-2248. S2CID 9744177.
  4. ↑ Eerola, A.; Miles, I. (1 April 2011). "Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective". Futures. 43 (3): 265–278. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005. ISSN 0016-3287.
  5. ↑ Tagiew, Rustam; Witzler, Sebastian; Portier, Martin (14 July 2022). "Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility". Social Science Research Network. SSRN 4151745. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  6. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.
  7. ↑ Cagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan (1 March 2013). "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80 (3): 379–385. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 60530892.
  8. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.