On June 4, 2024, the United States-based New Lines Institute released a comprehensive 120-page report concluding that there is strong evidence of genocidal acts committed by Ethiopian forces and their allies during the Tigray war. The report calls for Ethiopia to be prosecuted at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Before the release of the New Lines Institute report, the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments were repeatedly accused of committing genocide in Tigray.
The New Lines Institute report provides evidence that Ethiopian and allied forces committed acts constituting genocide, which include:
Killing Tigrayans: Systematic mass killings of Tigrayan civilians.
Causing serious bodily or mental harm: Widespread incidents of torture, rape, and other forms of severe physical and psychological abuse.
Deliberately inflicting conditions to destroy: Imposing starvation tactics and other measures aimed at destroying Tigrayan communities.
Preventing births: Actions intended to prevent births within the Tigrayan population.
The 1946 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) declared the Genocide Convention, outlining the definition of genocide and listing associated crimes. Though the declaration defined genocide, it was other UN organs that interpreted the law, the final arbiter being the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The ICJ and other international tribunals, such as the International Criminal Court (ICC), have established the conditions that need to be fulfilled for a crime to be designated a genocide. Those conditions are broadly classified into three: targeting of a protected group, acts that target the group in whole or in part, and intent to destroy.
Tigrayans as a protected group
The UN Genocide Convention stipulates that a targeted group can be defined based on ethnicity, nation, race, or religion. As such, Tigrayans are mainly categorized under ethnic or subnational grouping. Tigrayans have long played a key role in Ethiopian history, starting from the Axumite empire in the 1st–7th century which was situated in the current-day Tigrayan highlands and the city of Axum, the Battle of Adwa to defeat the Italian invasion in 1896, and the many rebellions of the 20th century against central Ethiopian governments. This long history has created a distinct ethnic identity with a unique language, Tigrinya, and culture.
The earliest reports on sexual- and gender-based violence emerged in March and April of 2021. One of those reports came from The New York Times after interviewing Mona Lisa, a survivor of an attempted assault. She detailed that after her resistance, the soldier shot her, leading to an amputated arm; similar testimonies started coming from other outlets as well. In addition, another report came from CNN, whose reporters interviewed victims who had fled to neighboring Sudan. The victims' testimonies indicated that sexual violence was used to "change the identity" of the women. In addition, UN Aid Chief Mark Lowcock stated that "sexual violence is being used as a weapon of war in Ethiopia's Tigray" and urged the UN to issue a statement. Abiy Ahmed's own cabinet member resigned her position as Minister of Women, Children, and Youth in protest of how the investigation into those crimes was handled; she claimed her report was blocked by the government.
Academic research also indicates the presence of genocidal rape. A 2023 study by Mengistu Welday Gebremichael of the College of Health Sciences at Mekelle University explored the impact of sexual violence on women and girls in the Tigray region. The authors highlight the long-lasting trauma, the challenges faced in escaping rape and killings, and the urgent need for coordinated efforts to heal, support, and rehabilitate survivors. A 2024 article published in the Journal of BRICS Studies provides a comprehensive analysis of the sexual violence perpetrated against Tigrayan civilians during the conflict. The authors detail the extent and nature of the abuse, presenting evidence suggesting an intent to sterilize and inflict maximum damage. By comparing the sexual violence in Tigray with similar cases from other conflicts, the authors conclude that it constitutes genocide.
Destruction of the healthcare system
Different studies indicate that Tigray's healthcare facilities were systematically and intentionally targeted, with close to 90% of the region's healthcare system being destroyed. A Médecins Sans Frontières report showed that less than 1 in 10 facilities were functioning, with 73% looted and 87% not fully or partially functioning. This destruction had a detrimental impact on the maternal mortality rate, which quadrupled from 186 per 100,000 in the pre-war period to 840 per 100,000 by May 2022.
Cultural genocide
Policies in the region have enforced the Amharic language on the indigenous Tigray population, a process which scholars Merih Welay Welesilassie and Berhane Gerencheal named "linguistic genocide" in a 2025 paper.
Airstrikes on civilians
A 2025 study found that of 1,143 airstrike casualties reported in Tigray over 17 months, nearly a third of the victims were children and half were women. The strikes occurred predominantly in civilian areas, such as internally displaced people's camps, marketplaces, churches, public transport, and children's playgrounds.
International response
The New Lines Institute report urges the international community to exert diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia and to pursue legal action through the ICJ.
In 2024, the Australian Greens expressed deep concern over the humanitarian crisis in Tigray, citing the New Lines Institute genocide report. They believe the actions of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces may constitute genocide and urge the Australian government to support accountability.
Ethiopian and Eritrean denials
Both the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments have consistently denied allegations of war crimes and genocide. Ethiopia has been accused of attempting to block international investigations, while Eritrea has labeled the accusations as defamatory.
Notable statements and reactions
Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee
The Nobel Peace Prize committee released a statement on January 13, 2022 condemning the restriction of aid to the population in need, and put the onus to end the conflict on the Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, stating, "Abiy Ahmed has a special responsibility to end the conflict and help to create peace." Abiy had received a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 "for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea".
Ethiopian Orthodox Christian Church
The sixth patriarch of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church, Abune Mathias, decried what is happening in Tigray as genocide and alleged his voice was being censored not to speak on the issue. The patriarch is an ethnic Tigrayan himself.
World Health Organization
World Health Organization Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, an Ethiopian citizen, stated in his remarks on October 19, 2022 that "There is a narrow window to prevent genocide in Tigray." Tedros criticized the Ethiopian government for its handling of the war and the use of siege tactics to prevent humanitarian aid from reaching its intended recipients.
United States
Secretary of State Antony Blinken used the term "ethnic cleansing" for the first time in March 2021 to describe what was happening in western Tigray.
The Holocaust Memorial Museum issued statements in December 2021 and October 2022, warning of a heightened risk of genocide in Ethiopia. The museum cited vitriolic rhetoric against Tigrayans and the actions taken against the group.
↑Negash, Emnet (24 May 2023). "Updated assessment of civilian starvation deaths during the Tigray war". Archived from the original on 4 July 2023. Retrieved 4 July 2023. As our estimate of the civilian deaths in the Tigray war is regularly mentioned in the media, it seems important to share our evolving understanding and updated (lower) number of civilian deaths as a result of the Tigray war and blockade. We concluded that the IPC/FEWS categorization, on which our Tigray statistics are mainly based, overestimates hunger mortality. Along with developing information on the ground, this would point to a total number of civilian deaths ranging from 162,000 to 378,000.
↑Ibrahim, Azeem; Hook, Kristina; Kennedy, Helena; Leddy, Nick; O'Brien, Melanie; U. Ochab, Ewelina; Packer, John; Prey, Emily; Rock, Allan; etal. (Erin Farrell Rosenberg, David J. Scheffer, Annika Weis) (June 2024). Genocide in Tigray: International Legal Analysis and Findings. New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. pp.21–22.
↑Erlich, Ḥaggai (2024). Greater Tigray and the mysterious magnetism of Ethiopia. Oxford scholarship online Political Science. Oxford: Oxford University Press. ISBN978-1-80526-023-3.
↑Plaut, Martin; Vaughan, Sarah (2023). "Part One History". Understanding Ethiopia's Tigray War. London: Hurst & company. ISBN978-1-78738-811-6.
↑Reisen, Mirjam van (2024). "Chapter 10 Genocide through Health Care Violence: The Systematic Destruction of Health Facilities in the Tigray War". Tigray: War in a Digital Black Hole. Araya Abrha Medhanyie, Munyaradzi Mawere (1sted.). Oxford: Langaa RPCIG. pp.381–389. ISBN978-9956-554-43-0.
↑Legesse, Awol Yemane; Teka Tseghay, Hale; Abraha, Hiluf Ebuy; Fisseha, Girmatsion; Ebrahim, Mohamedawel Mohamedniguss; Tsadik, Mache; Berhe, Bereket; Gebrekurstos, Gebrehaweria; Ayele, Brhane; Gebremeskel, Tesfit; Gebremariam, Tsega; Hadush, Marta Yemane; Hagos, Tigist; Gebreziabiher, Abreha; Muez, Kibrom (2024). "Maternal mortality during war time in Tigray, Ethiopia: A community-based study". BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology. 131 (6): 786–794. doi:10.1111/1471-0528.17677. ISSN1471-0528.
↑Welesilassie, Merih Welay; Gerencheal, Berhane (2025-02-01). ""Only Amharic or Leave Quick!": Linguistic Genocide in the Western Tigray Region of Ethiopia". International Journal for the Semiotics of Law - Revue internationale de Sémiotique juridique. 38 (2): 619–657. doi:10.1007/s11196-024-10113-7. ISSN1572-8722.
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