Weather of 2026

Storm Goretti was an extremely powerful extratropical cyclone that impacted Western Europe in early January 2026.

The following is a list of weather events that occurred on Earth in the year 2026.

El Niño

Official NOAA CPC ENSO probabilities as of May 2026

A weak La Niña event evolved to ENSO-neutral in early 2026, but by May was "rapidly transitioning" to El Niño, according to Columbia University's Climate School. Computer modeling in late May by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested the development of an El Niño event was likely by the July through September peak of the Pacific hurricane season. The Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) ENSO plume forecast gave a 98% probability of El Niño forming and a 97%-98% probability of continuing through the end of the year, a range Columbia called "remarkably high and narrow".

On June 2 the United Nations World Meteorological Organization confirmed "that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are expected to influence weather and climate patterns around the world in the months ahead." In June, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts released a forecast of a central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly of 3–4 °C (5.4–7.2 °F), which would make it the strongest on record. On 19 September 2026, in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean Niño 3.4 region, the average ocean temperature reached 3.05 °C (5.49 °F) above average—the largest temperature anomaly on record. In September, the Climate Impact Lab projected that in the ensuing six months, 451,000 more lives would be lost due to heat than in a normal year.

Global conditions

June 2026 global average sea surface temperatures reached an all-time record high for the month of June, with 2026's spring temperatures being exceeded only in spring of 2024. Global average sea surface temperatures reached a new July high (20.96 °C (69.73 °F), beating 2023's high of 20.89 °C (69.60 °F)), partly fueled by developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. On 22 August, global average sea surface temperature reached 21.1 °C (70.0 °F), its highest level on record, exceeding the March 2024 record. Such temperatures are typically highest in March and April, following the austral summer.

August 2026 had the warmest global surface temperature of any month on record: 1.65 °C above pre-industrial levels. The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that Earth's atmosphere held more water vapour in August 2026 than any other month on record, increasing the risk of extreme heat and rainfall around the world.

Deadliest events

Deadliest meteorological events during 2026
Rank Event Date(s) Deaths (+Missing) Refs
1 2026 European heatwaves May 22 – September 50,391+ (in urban areas only)
2 2026 Nepal–Tibet floods August 26 1,494+ (6,669+)
3 Storm Harry January 16–23 390
4 January 2026 Southern Africa floods (Mozambique·Zimbabwe) January 12–25 200+
5 January 2026 North American winter storm January 22–30 174 (1)
6 Severe Tropical Storm Maysak July 1–7 159+ (10+)
7 Deep Depression BOB 06 September 21–27 131
8 2026 Kenya floods March 6 – present 112
9 2026 Uttar Pradesh storm May 13 111+
10 2026 West Bandung landslide January 24 80 (20)

Types

Cold snaps and winter storms

From January 22–27, a deadly winter storm affected Northern Mexico, United States and Atlantic Canada, causing many warnings, freezing temperatures and more than 170 deaths over the area. On January 28, the storm moved out to the open Atlantic Ocean, followed by another storm which affected almost all the same regions.

Tornadoes

January

On January 4, a tornado struck the Frattocchie area in Marino, Italy, after reportedly coming from the sea. 30 trees were downed, and several structures and vehicles sustained damage. The tornado was rated as an IF1.5 on the International Fujita scale. A few days later, a small tornado event occurred in Oklahoma early on January 8, with five tornadoes being confirmed, one of which was rated EF2 after it tore the roof off of a house southwest of Purcell. This tornado caused one injury along its path when it rolled a semi-truck as it crossed I–35 in the southern part of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. That day, a significant tornado struck the town of Kalpaki, Greece. The tornado destroyed a farm, killing 30 to 40 thousand chickens. Two other buildings were heavily damaged, with partially collapsed walls, the tornado was rated as an IF2 tornado on the International Fujita Scale. Two days later, a tornado struck the city of São José dos Pinhais, Brazil. The tornado wrecked a warehouse and damaged at least 350 homes, as well as several walls, utility poles, and trees. An estimated 1,200 people were impacted, with two families being displaced and two people lightly injured. The winds reached an estimated 180 km/h (112 mph), and the tornado rated a low-end F2.

Tropical and subtropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones are primarily monitored by 10 warning centers around the world, which are designated as a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or a Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These centers are: National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Météo-France (MFR), Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Papua New Guinea's National Weather Service (PNGNWS), Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), and New Zealand's MetService. Unofficial, but still notable, warning centers include the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA; albeit official within the Philippines), the United States's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center.

Through 10 September—normally the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season—not a single Atlantic hurricane had formed, marking the latest season start since weather satellites were launched in the 1960s. In contrast, the Pacific was hyperactive, due to El Niño conditions.

Extratropical cyclones and European windstorms

Storm Anna caused widespread chaos at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, particularly on January 2, 2026, where a combination of heavy snow and shifting crosswinds led to the cancellation of over 325 flights and delayed more than 635 others. The disruption at Schiphol hit KLM and easyJet hardest, with KLM alone cancelling roughly 30% of its schedule due to the airport's reduced runway capacity. The storm brought wind gusts of up to 90 km/h (56 mph) along the northern coast of the Netherlands. In Sweden, meteorologists recorded extreme accumulations, with up to 50 cm (20 in) of snow falling in parts of central Sweden on New Year's Day and January 2, leaving thousands of households without power. In the Netherlands and Germany, the storm's tail end brought freezing rain and black ice, leading to hazardous road conditions and the deployment of specialized snow removal equipment like the Lavastorm truck on major highways. Meanwhile, in Poland, the storm's heavy snow paralyzed the S7 motorway, leaving hundreds of travelers stranded in sub-zero temperatures with traffic jams stretching up to 20 km (12 mi).

Between 5 and 8 May 2026, an intense cut-off low-pressure system stalled over South Africa, triggering the South African Weather Service to issue its highest-impact Orange Level 8 warnings for the Eastern and Western Cape. The system delivered extreme rainfall, with Joubertina recording 301.2 mm (11.86 in) in three days, while the Kouga Dam saw an unprecedented rise from 32% to over 113% capacity in 24 hours. These torrential downpours resulted in widespread flash flooding that inundated homes, destroyed critical road infrastructure, and forced the emergency evacuation of over 2,000 residents in the Gamtoos Valley. Beyond the flooding, the storm brought gale-force winds and dangerous coastal surges, claiming at least one life in Knysna and leaving several communities in the Garden Route and Karoo completely isolated until the system finally moved offshore on 8 May.

Wildfires

Satellite imagery of Victoria (Australia), showing smoke plumes from fires on 9 January 2026.

Fires from January to April 2026 burned more than 150 million ha (370 million acres) of land—20% more than the previous record.

Australia

On January 7, extreme conditions in Victoria, Australia, allowed for a massive fire outbreak, burning over 300 thousand ha (740 thousand acres), destroying over 300 structures, and resulting in one death.

Chile

From 16 January 2026, major wildfires burned in the regions of Biobío and Ñuble, destroying at least 800 structures, resulting in over 50,000 forced to evacuate and 21 fatalities.

Heatwaves

Heat storms—generally defined as heat waves of long duration and covering wide areas—have increased in recent decades, under one definition growing from five per year in the 1960s to 102 per year in the 2020s through September 2026. Spikes in heat storms have often followed within months after El Niño events.

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences said that exceptionally low 2025 and 2026 arctic ice extent indicate that 20-year arctic sea ice decline was "becoming significant again" after a period in which such declines had been insignificant.

In late January, much of Australia experienced a prolonged, extreme heatwave, with 12 locations recording temperatures above 49 °C (120 °F), and two, Andamooka and Port Augusta reaching 50 °C (122 °F) on 29 and 30 January.

World Weather Attribution said that, even considering the progress of global warming, March 2026 heatwaves in Western North America were "rare events" that would have been "virtually impossible" without human-induced climate change.

In March, NASA reported that, for the second consecutive year winter arctic sea ice declined, matching the lowest level since records began in 1979.

NOAA's NCEI reported that the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) average temperature in March 2026 was 5.2 °C (9.4 °F) above the 20th century average—the warmest March in the 132-year record. Also, the year from April 2025 to March 2026 was deemed to be the warmest ever recorded for the CONUS in records since 1895, and January–March 2026 was the driest on record for the CONUS.

In May, a historic intense "heat dome" of high pressure trapping warm air from Northern Africa shattered all-time May national temperature records across Western Europe. A study by extreme event attribution organisation Climameter ascribed the high temperatures of the May 2026 Western European Heatwave to human-driven climate change, with natural climate variability likely playing a minor role. This happened again in June with many western and central European countries recording record temperatures, with large swathes under red warnings for heat. Extreme heat conditions persisted through July, with a third major heatwave affecting Western and Northern Europe in early July, followed by a fourth heatwave beginning on 28 July. The sustained high temperatures combined with extreme precipitation deficits—with parts of southern England receiving less than 1% of average July rainfall—led to flash drought conditions across the region and prompted the Environment Agency to officially declare drought status across more than half of England on 29 July. An October 2026 Imperial College London study estimated 50,391 heat-related excess deaths across 854 European cities during the summer, with around two thirds attributable to anthropogenic climate change.

In June, an Antarctic heatwave reached temperatures of nearly 60 °F (16 °C)—which is 36 °F (20 °C) above normal—leading to widespread ice thawing and rain falling on glaciers.

Drought

The water level of Lake Powell has declined from near maximum capacity to a new low within 30 feet (9.1 m) of the minimum level needed for Glen Canyon Dam to generate electricity.
The water level of Lake Mead has declined from near maximum capacity to a new low within 100 feet (30 m) of the minimum level needed for Hoover Dam to generate electricity.

Timeline

January

February

March

Flooding on the banks of the Paraibuna River in the Industrial neighborhood, Juiz de Fora

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

See also

References

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